Gas Industry
A
large supply shortfall is forecast for global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) which
acts to keep tight Australian domestic gas demand.
The
following table is sourced from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)
2013 report titled “Projections of Gas Demand for LNG export from eastern and
south eastern Australia” prepared by Core Energy Group.
Major supply shortfalls have been
similarly noted by major oil companies.
The biggest influence on future gas
demand in Australia will be the new LNG export facilities currently in
production or nearing completion. There are three such facilities at Gladstone
in Queensland owned by a range of global energy companies, being:
- Asia Pacific LNG (APLNG) (Conoco Phillips - USA, Origin Energy - Australia, Sinopec - China);
- Queensland Curtis LNG (QCLNG) (QGC – subsidiary of British Gas - UK, CNOOC - China, Tokyo Gas - Japan); and
- Gladstone LNG (GLNG) (Santos - Australia, KOGAS - Korea, PETRONAS - Malaysia, Total - France).
Total gas demand across the
interconnected gas networks of South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales,
Queensland and Tasmania was 740 PJ in 2012. The three committed projects,
with six LNG trains (a liquefied natural gas plant's liquefaction and
purification facility), will require a minimum of 1,518 PJ of gas per annum – a
total demand representing a threefold increase over the 2012 demand on the east
coast. The LNG plants, with their large increase in anticipated gas consumption
volumes, are expected to become the driving force in the eastern Australian gas
market for the foreseeable future.
As a result of the large anticipated
increase in demand, the supply situation is expected to become extremely tight.
This in turn will be further exacerbated by the ongoing depletion of easily
recoverable conventional gas supplies in Australia.
Coal Seam Gas (CSG) form the majority
of current LNG supply (currently approximately 80% of the Queensland market).
However, access restrictions due to Government policy changes and lack of
community support mean there is considerable
doubt over the long term viability of CSG.
Because of this, unconventional gas
resources, such as In-Situ Gasification, will be the driving force behind
future expansion, and critical in any attempt to fill the projected LNG void.